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Market Update 

February 22,2023

Understanding the current state of the housing market is crucial for both buyers and sellers. There are many factors at play, including rising interest rates, inflation, and regulatory changes. As a result, it's important to stay informed in order to make the best decisions regarding buying or selling a home.

First and foremost, interest rates have seen a recent jump. While still below the peak in October 2022, rates have gone from 5.99% on February 2nd to almost 6.9% today. This increase will add just under $300 to the monthly payment on a $500K loan. It's essential for buyers and sellers to stay up-to-date with these changes to ensure they make informed decisions.

In response to strong economic data coupled with lingering inflation, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue raising interest rates. As a result,

bond yields have risen and mortgage rates have increased, impacting the housing market. Mortgage applications have decreased by 7.7% due to rising rates, and while builders are growing bullish, affordability is still a concern for many buyers.

The housing market has also seen a rise in buyer demand this year, with competitive offers back in many markets. However, buyer demand slowed down last week, with 5% fewer buyer contacts compared to the week of January 15th. The big question is whether this decrease is due to rising interest rates or just a post-Super Bowl and holiday hangover. Despite the pressure on affordability caused by rising rates, buyers still need to move quickly in most markets. 

Sellers also face a challenge in the current market. While few are willing to list their homes, inventory levels are up 21% from last year. 21% sounds scarier than it is because the current inventory is similar to levels in 2021, which was a total seller's market. Sale prices are right where they were at this time last year, with a national median of $348K, and prices have held steadier than expected, providing sellers with the opportunity to benefit from their home equity.

Regulatory changes have also impacted the housing market, with Ginnie Mae reducing the minimum pool size for HECM mortgage-backed securities and Florida legislators considering regulations on Collateral Protection Insurance (CPI). It's important for buyers and sellers to stay informed on these regulatory changes and how they could impact the market.

Overall, the current state of the housing market is in flux, making it essential for buyers and sellers to stay informed and connected with industry professionals. With rising interest rates and inflation, it's important to have a game plan and be creative in finding alternatives to stay on track. Despite challenges, there are still opportunities for both buyers and sellers in the current market. A trusted professional can help those that would like to buy, sell, or invest identify the opportunities that best fit their goals.

Despite the challenges of low inventory and multiple offer situations, buyers must move quickly in most markets. As for sellers, the challenge is that they most likely are locked into sub-3% mortgage rates so those that are listing their homes are doing so out of necessity. As a result, 45% of new listings are accepting an offer within two weeks of their debut, which is the highest percentage aside from 2021 and 2022. 

Sale prices remain steady and most homeowners still have a lot of equity in their homes. It's worth noting that while interest rates may be rising, they're doing so in response to a strong economy and persistent inflation. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.5% in January, for a yearly rate of 6.4%, while retail sales jumped 3%, and the January jobs report came in stronger than expected, with over 500K jobs added.

Looking ahead, the next inflation report in mid-March will provide a big update on where the mortgage market is headed. With so much in flux, it's important to stay informed and hone our skills to help buyers and sellers make the right decisions in this up-and-down market. Keep an eye out for an email introducing a new training sprint where you can learn from industry leaders on how to succeed in today's housing market.

Be sure to follow me on all the social media platforms @HungryRealtor to stay informed.